Barack Obama's reelection for his second term as US President was significant in many ways, not least because it was the product of a $6 billion close contest won in a handful of swing states, but also because of many other reasons, reasons which the coalition in Australia in general & Tony Abbott in particular must examine very closely. Reasons which Abbott & co simply can not afford to ignore.
But at the same time Mitt Romney lost the election for reasons which simply do not apply to Tony Abbott.
Here are some comparisons with the state of political affairs in Australia vs US Elections:
The conservative core of the Republican Party leadership never fully supported Mitt Romney, to the point that he had to resort to frequent shifts in his position on sensitive political issues by moving to the right.
Tony Abbott does not have either of those problems: The conservative leadership core of the party supports him.
Even more crucially, with his "No Carbon tax, No Mineral Resources Supertax & Turn back the Boats" message, unlike Mitt Romney, Tony Abbott has not had to shift on his main political message in order to appease the conservative right of the Liberal Party.
Politicians in the USA, particularly the conservative nominees on the Republican side, will always have to deal with the ever so sticky topics of gun control & abortion. Tony Abbott, whilst supported by the right wing religious factions in the Liberal Party does not need to address the abortion issue, and thankfully strict gun control laws are a bipartisan & socially acceptable topic in Australia.
On the other hand, similar to Mitt Romney, Tony Abbott has also focused on the so called "blue colour male vote" in marginal seats and has risked alienating significant ethnic minority votes & the more crucially the all important female vote.
Mitt Romney did exactly that & the Hispanics & women deserted him in the crucial swing states which either candidate needed to win to win the election.
Tony Abbott must start to repair the damage caused by the apparent disconnection of female voters with him. This needs a lot more focus & constant attention than the limited traction gained after the interviews by Abbott's wife.
The constant "austerity, debt reduction" message by the Republicans & Mitt Romney at a time of weak economic outlook, high unemployment & fragile consumer sentiment did not go well with anxious voters.
Tony Abbott's politically motivated attacks to force the Gillard Government to produce a meaningless surplus or lose all credibility can work against the coalition. Cutting government services & jobs at a time of very low consumer confidence is not clever politics & is in fact fiscally stupid, especially when inflation remains well & truly under control.
At a time when many sectors of the economy such as retail, construction, manufacturing & tourism are reeling in deep recession, for a country in the comfortably sound economic position of Australia, the push for a symbolic surplus to gain political points is only going to increase unnecessary anxiety & further slowdown in the economy.
Whilst both sides of politics in Australia are guilty of cost cutting proposals to achieve this meaningless surplus, the cost cutting measures of the QLD & NSW Governments will play into the hands of Labor strategists & will pose itself (with labor's help of course) as a major negative for Tony Abbott in the coming months.
At the same time, as 2013 the election year approaches, the coalition continues to remain big on rhetoric & deafeningly silent on policy details. The leaked reports by the Treasury suggesting coalition policies will cost business $4b will only fuel suspicion further.
The House & Senate Republicans, with their versions of blocking stimulus & other expansionary policies of President Obama, and Mitt Romney in lacking detailed policy alternatives, contributed to Romney's ultimate failure last Tuesday.
Tony Abbott must watch out. It is naive to assume voters will vote for him simply because they intensely dislike the PM Julia Gillard.
Abbott & his team must demonstrate much more balance in dealing with voters, produce real visionary alternative policies & learn from the obvious mistakes of the Republican machine & Mitt Romney's camp in this year's US Elections.
