Abbott, Hockey and the new Government, a case of letting everyone down with frugality?

It is the political norm for all newly elected governments to make the previous mob look incompetent by magnifying mismanagement, policy failures & budget deficits.

Tony Abbott & Joe Hockey are no different as political operatives & will make sure by the time May Budget comes down, everything is blamed on Gillard, Rudd, Shorten & co.

However, as Christopher Pyne's huge stumble (and Abbott's timely intervention) with education funding clearly demonstrated, Tony Abbott must be very careful!
Whilst in opposition, he had made commitments such as parental leave scheme, which will be very costly to fund.

Tony Abbott can not break his promises because of the successful way he totally discredited Julia Gillard over her Carbon Tax broken promise.

But at the same time & most crucially, he must not fund his expensive promises by simply taking away from other funding areas such as health & education.

If he does, he will at his own peril & will no doubt pay for it at the next ballot box.

RIP Nelson Mandela 1918-2013

RIP Nelson Mandela, A true inspirational political & social leader & teacher of humanity!

There are no comparisons in the modern history (Gandhi aside) & words can not describe Nelson Mandela, what he did, what he taught & what he achieved for his people.

Mandela gave hope, inspired, led & most importantly taught his enemies & followers humanity & compassion without resorting to excessive power, violence, religion, money or guns!

The curious case of Gonski vs Carbon Tax as broken promises!

It would be amazing to find out what gets the better of politicians at times & why their egos cloud their judgements to the point of total naivety in reading the public mood!

It is therefore hard to guess what Christopher Pyne, PM Abbott & their highly paid advisors were thinking when Christopher Pyne decided to bulldoze through the Gonski education agreement by ignoring the fact that Tony Abbott had made a clear pre election promise to honour the funding as agreed by Gillard Government with most states.

To paraphrase the famous saying..." a little bit of information is a dangerous thing!" So as a lay person, I can't & won't claim to be privy to all the behind the scene information & drama that take place in the political arena & the end game stage show that we witness in the media.

This post is also not about the merits of Gillard's Gonski agreement vs Pyne's view! rather, this post is about the peculiar question of political judgement!

However, curiously, for a political party which patiently took 3 years to carefully & masterfully destroy the Labor Government's credibility based on a) broken Carbon Tax promise & b) returning the boats slogan, it was rather baffling when last week they appeared to be breaking a politically sensitive election promise at a time when the diplomatic stoush with Indonesia was potentially affecting their border protection policy (another election promise!)

But even more puzzling was what Tony Abbott was thinking when he said ....."We are going to keep the promise that we made, not the promise that some people thought we made or the promise that some people would like us to make. We are going to keep the promise that we actually made,"......

Can't he see that a statement like that can profoundly damage the little remaining trust the voters have in our politicians & political system, and even worse, render what is still the most highly prized aspect of our western democracy ie "election campaign promises" totally obsolete? (not that election promises are worth the paper they are written on in most cases anyway)

So hats off to PM Abbott & his advisors for realising the huge political misjudgement on the cards & quickly going into damage control to mop & clean up what could have been a political suicide so early in Abbott's first term!

Fall from grace concluded: Kevin Rudd's lasting legacy will be self promoting narcissism

As harsh as it may sound, Kevin Rudd was just about the only MP with teary eyes last night as contrived compliments from both sides of politics were read in his honour after he announced his retirement from politics!

Kevin Rudd's lasting legacy should be much more, but sadly it will be self promoting narcissism.

Whilst it is universally acknowledged that that the plot by the still present faceless powerbrokers to remove him was one of the biggest acts of treachery in the history of Labor Party, his subsequent & consistent white anting of Julia Gillard until he replaced her as PM simply makes Julia Gillard look like a tower of integrity next to him.

This contrast was compounded by the dignified way Julia Gillard withdrew from public life after losing the ballot compared to all the sabotage & leaking by Rudd & his allies. And let's not forget the Chief deputy in all of the white anting was Chris Bowen, who now prancing around claiming he own the mantle of honesty & integrity!

The most damning legacy for any politician is when they retire from public office & not many voters miss their departure. Whilst they almost always stay around too long & experience this indignity, in Rudd's case this is augmented & even the vast majority of those who only a few months ago seemed to adore him are now simply happy to see the back of him!

But to give Rudd some credit, he did manage to take political narcissism in Australia to new heights & in the process made the likes of Gillard & Abbott look good!

On Tony Abbott's Election victory & the most pressing immediate issues ahead & Bill Shorten's monumental task to reform labor Party back to relevance!

It's been more than a month since Tony Abbott & the coalition's decisive victory at the polls in Australia.

It is clear that Tony Abbott has recognised the extent of the political damage the public infighting between the Gillard & Rudd camps caused the Labor brand, and the fact that the 24 media cycle fuelled the circus.

It is therefore clear that Tony Abbott wants to govern under the radar of the voters, at least for as long as possible! The travel expense issue can & will disrupt that strategy albeit momentary.

Abbott also appreciates the terminal damage the "No Carbon Tax" turnaround inflicted on Gillard's leadership. So he's acutely aware of the fact that in order to establish credibility & win voters' trust, he must reasonably quickly a) make sure asylum seeker boats trickle down to near zero, and b) repeal the Carbon Tax legislation.

However, the most pressing issues facing the Abbott Government are neither of the above: 
1) Low business confidence due to haphazard years of Labor policy initiatives & poor implementation 
2) Fragile consumer spending
3) Poor productivity gains due to stifling aspects of the Fair Work Legislation

Those three will be very much issues which will define Abbott's first term in government.

Bill Shorten has in many ways got a harder task ahead of him. The contrived US style leadership selection process of the last 4-5 weeks can hardly work as an effective strategy to cover up a bitterly divided party in need of major reform. The leadership ballot, whilst a good first step, falls far short of the real restructure & reform labor urgently needs, reform that was comprehensively reported by the Faulkner/Carr/Bracks Committee after the 2010 election & sadly conveniently ignored by Gillard & her faceless backers.

There's no doubt that Bill Shorten is the most politically competent individual amongst the current crop of Labor politicians in Canberra, and the person most likely able to lock horns with Tony Abbott.

However, if Bill Shorten is serious about broadening the base of the Party 7 its future relevance & his own leadership, he must restructure the preselection process to allow more candidates from NON UNION backgrounds to represent Labor Party at State & Federal politics. 

As it stands, the vast majority of Bill Shorten's much hyped Shadow Cabinet are former Union officials (including Bill Shorten himself of course) and 22 of the 26 Labor Senators in the new Senate next July will be former union officials who have almost been handed over cushy Senate seats.

Surely, Bill Shorten, Anthony Albanese & the still very much alive & kicking faceless men of Labor Party understand that is hardly a good start in broadening the appeal of the Party amongst the clearly disenchanted voters!

Kevin Rudd is gone, but has he accepted any responsibility for anything? The answer is an emphatic NO!

It was hard to believe Kevin Rudd was making a speech to concede defeat. In yet another blaze of self admiration, after a Hollywood style entrance, Kevin Rudd stood there in front of his adoring fans last night & for 22 minutes spoke in self congratulatory terms about how he had saved labor Party!

On a night when Labor Party received its lowest primary vote in nearly 100 years, and was inflicted one of the worst election defeats in its history, there stood Kevin Rudd stating how he had steadied the ship & was handing over the Party in good fighting shape!

Admittedly as many have stated, Labor cut its own throat the day the faceless men of the party executed Kevin Rudd to install Julia Gillard & the rest is history! Self preservation & self interest meant broken promises, sabotage, policy mishaps, infighting & disastrous policy implementation in the next three years!

But even those powerful faceless men underestimated Kevin Rudd's resilience, and more crucially determination to seek vengeance no matter the costs.

As if the minority government, broken promises & other disasters mentioned above were not enough, Kevin Rudd embarked on a campaign of sabotage & destabilisation of Gillard Government until the powerbrokers in Labor Party, like hopelessly desperate parents who had run out of ideas on how to deal with an out of control child, caved into him & gave his him his "rightful job" back in June!

And, Kevin Rudd's legacy will be simple: His egocentric behaviour will mean history will look kindly at Julia Gillard's tumultuous time as PM & not too kindly at his own time as PM!

I wrote a blog in the dying days of Gillard's reign suggesting a Rudd vs Abbott election would be more about policy issues & much less about personalities in the case of Abbott vs Gillard. But like many others, I had forgotten the egocentric self absorbed narcissistic traits of Kevin Rudd too! 

Thanks to Rudd's ego, and Abbott's well disciplined & rehearsed strategy, the Rudd vs Abbott election turnout to be all about Rudd self promoting & sadly overestimating his popularity, & then desperately attacking Tony Abbott as a last resort. 

Tony Abbott, like it or not, to his credit did not panic, did not get rattled & did not change tact. He stood his ground & continued to portray a perception of steady hands whilst waiting patiently for Kevin Rudd to be exposed for his contrived PR campaign, which steadily unfolded into a farce.

And well deserved congratulations to Tony Abbott & his team. 

For withstanding all the "least popular opposition leader" jibes, for Julia Gillard's desperate attempt on class warfare & misogyny, & for steadfastly dealing with all attempts by the government figures to rattle him. He beat them all in their own & at times petty games! & His reward, the 28th PM of Australia.

I have mentioned in several posts previously that voters don't need to necessarily like their leaders! But they need to respect them for their integrity & conviction, & to trust them.

The point is clearly seen here:

For a number of reasons, Julia Gillard was neither liked nor trusted & lost respect after the broken no carbon tax saga.
Kevin Rudd was liked but ultimately was neither trusted nor respected because of his white anting & ego driven behaviour in the last three years!
Tony Abbott on the other hand, may not be well liked or trusted yet by sections of the electorate.
But the voters respect him for his convictions & have stated they are prepared to trust him for the next 3 years.

John Howard & Paul Keating were not particularly liked either. But they showed vision & conviction, and with those traits, bought themselves trust & respect.

Tony Abbott, has already proven himself as a competent Howard Government Minister, a tough opposition leader & has the full potential to grow into the job as a very good Prime Minister.

If he avoids mishaps & mistakes & translates his leadership qualities that are already evident to a competent united government. he can& will gain the voters' respectability & trust, and with that comes longevity at the lodge! 

In the course of the next term, Abbott's battles with the Senate will be crucial in shaping his leadership. & vision. As it stands, the composition of the new Senate in July 2014 looks extremely difficult to deal with, considering that even some obscure minority parties with a mere few hundred primary votes may get a seat due to complicated preferences deals. (that is something that must be reformed but is a discussion for another day)

And as a sceptic until recently, I predict Tony Abbott will demonstrate steady hands & vision & will grow into the job of PM & as he stated last Wednesday night at a pre election function in Sydney, "under promises & over delivers"!

A European style austerity & cuts in spending which has caused recessions and/or slowed down growth in eg UK is not the way forward. Moderate spending in a way that can stimulate consumer confidence is the way to go forward. Abbott has already indicated that is his intention to do exactly that.

It's finally on! The Election we had to have!

The election we had to have is finally on!

Kevin Rudd's ascendancy to the leadership of the Labor Party has once again made the polls close & the election battle meaningful. Julia Gillard's leadership was irreversibly damaged as she utterly failed to regain the trust & ears of voters.

It threatened an unhealthy landslide victory by the opposition.

However, Kevin Rudd's popularity is seemingly based on "Voter Amnesia" & how well Labor performs on election day is depends on whether voters' amnesia continues!

Yes, Tony Abbott must present both his vision & his policies in detail in the next month. Yes, like Gillard, Tony Abbott has a public perception problem. And yes, there are aspects of coalition basic policy platforms that are inferior to Labor's.

But both Gillard & Rudd Governments are tainted by a history of numerous political errors, poor policy implementation & amateurish political judgement, not to mention the messy leadership executions!

At the same time, a hung Parliament is hardly going to improve business or consumer confidence.

An Abbott victory with a modest majority will be the best probable outcome as it gives the coalition the opportunity to implement their policies in the next term to prove their competence to the voters whilst it also gives the voters the opportunity to punish the coalition in 3 years time if they don't deliver. 

And as for a Rudd led Government, there's nothing to add. Gillard & Rudd have both had their time, and neither delivered enough to deserve a third term Labor Government!

It's now time for the Negative & Positive "Stuntmen" of Australian politics to talk policy & show substance rather than mere rhetoric!

Julia Gillard more than anyone else was acutely aware of her unpopularity with the voters.

Therefore, she worked hard on trying to focus attention on substantive policy issues. And she did try to introduce & address many pressing social & political reforms (some good, some bad, some disastrous) in areas such as school education, disability insurance, child sex abuse, national broadband etc.

However, her frequent political misjudgements & errors and the inept & incompetence of her administration on either selling the benefits of her policy initiatives and/or implementing them let her down badly. Talk back radio & many sections of media also did not afford her policies any oxygen. She therefore failed to get any traction on discussing substantive policy issues.

Kevin Rudd during his time as PM, and Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader, on the other hand have both been much more about political rhetoric than any substantive policy positions & the fact that Abbott is perceived as Mr Negative and/or Rudd as Mr Popular is a mere reflection of this.

And now as we approach an election date, it is time for both to stop their rhetoric & political spin & present their respective political & social vision for Australia. Whether they are capable of doing this however is yet to be seen because neither has a good demonstrable record!

Time's running out for our two master political stuntmen! positive or negative, both have built their positions on mostly rhetoric! It's now time for both to show present policy platforms & vision for Australia. Vision & not rhetoric is what voters are demanding from both Rudd & Abbott.

The other interesting point to observe is how Tony Abbott handles Kevin Rudd mark 2!. The political musical chair of political opponents unsettling each other will continue!

John Howard rattled the then PM Paul Keating when he became Opposition Leader again, & then finally got rattled himself when Kevin Rudd became the Opposition Leader!

Tony Abbott was then massively responsible for unseating the then PM Kevin Rudd. It seems now the Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has somewhat been rattled with Kevin Rudd's elevation as the new PM!

Gillard, the PM we HAD to have, Rudd the PM we now HAVE to have, & Abbott the PM we WILL probably have!

Successful political careers, more than ever before in today's world of intense 24/7 media scrutiny, are a matter of whether a perception of conviction as well as trustworthiness can be projected to voters.

And Julia Gillard ultimately failed to achieve either. From the moment the dysfunctional procrastinating Rudd was toppled, the question of earning the voters' trust became a losing battle for Gillard, and the "Carbon Tax" broken promise soon afterwards was the final nail in the coffin of Gillard's credibility amongst voters.

Nevertheless, Gillard was the PM we had to have! 

Rudd's leadership style, as widely reported was totally dysfunctional & a change in leadership was no less imperative as it was when Mark Latham was replaced, albeit in a different context.

Despite proving herself to be a political fighter leading a minority government, Gillard never managed to establish herself as a politician of any tangible conviction. Her failure in this respect was mainly due to her frequent political misjudgements & errors compounded by seemingly amateurish advice. This led her to the desperate tactics of gender & class warfare both of which ultimately backfired.

Gillard & Rudd were exact opposites as PMs in many ways. Gillard was decisive, a good administrator, consultative (albeit with a track record littered with poor political judgement).To those who knew her well, and even those like myself who had had the opportunity to meet her in a few functions & spend a minute or two talking to her, she was warm & likable. And yet, she ultimately failed the test of trust & political conviction in the eyes of majority of voters.

However, whilst in years to come Gillard will probably be commended for her Disability Insurance & Gonski Education Reforms, in my view, she will also rightly be blamed for her Fair Work Legislation which is stifling Australia's IR environment by pandering to every wish of the unions, at a critical time when the mining boom is beginning to fade. She has regressed the IR reforms of Hawke/Keating/Howard era by a long way.

Rudd on the other hand, in his first time around as the PM, was widely reported to have been a procrastinator, micromanager, aggressively insulting & non consultative. And yet, he amazingly enjoys the voters' trust & his constant rhetoric & lack of policy progress in his time as PM have been somehow forgotten simply because he has earned their trust & they perceive him as a politician of conviction.

And, here is where the next battle lies for Rudd. As John Howard famously proved, in Australia, voters don't have to necessarily like a politician to vote for him/her, rather they need to trust in their ability & respect a politician's conviction.

Rudd will no doubt give Abbott a timely run for his money, and more importantly make the election much more about policy than mere personalities or gender wars.

And this is why Rudd is the PM we have to have. He is right in saying Labor under Gillard was allowing Abbott & the coalition win without being scrutinised.

The fact that Abbott is not liked & Rudd is, will not necessarily be the decisive factor in the next election as long as Abbot continues to successfully sell the perception of political competence. And conviction, and yes! Like it or not, most of his negative tactics of the past three years can be turned around to a perception of political conviction; the classic example being the simplistic yet effective "turning the boats around!".

Therefore, if Abbott is successful with his message, the voters will most probably give him the benefit of the doubt by trusting him to lead the country. And this is why Abbott will probably be the PM we will have.

Whether he can retain that trust is up to him & his policies & his government's performance.

"Who has heavier baggage which can sink Labor to the bottom quicker? Gillard Or Rudd?"

Julia Gillard is consistently delivering Labor some of its lowest primary votes of all time in the polls. That indicates a disaster of titanic proportions come the elections in September.

Kevin Rudd on the other hand, continues to destabilise Gillard & the Labor Government with his vindictive & egocentric behaviour, which is heavily contributing to Labor's polling woes & sinking Labor regardless of the disastrous polls.

And both will deservedly go down as having destroyed Labor & its values with their stubborn behaviour & poor leadership qualities & actions. 

No party machine could possibly accept or condone Kevin Rudd's consistently destructive behaviour. He seems to have more regard for his own personal legacy than the good of Labor legacy.

On the other hand, Julia Gillard can talk all she wants about sexism & misogyny she was subjected to during her time as the PM. 
But the fact remains that whilst history will remember her as a fighter, it will also recall her many policy failures & implementation disasters, as well as broken promises such as the Carbon Tax & for poorly managing a much divided party whilst allowing the Unions & the Greens to influence & dictate much of what she believes she should be credited for, policies that are mostly stifling & regressive to their core & will damage Australia's productivity in the years after her.
She can only hope that amongst the ruinous legacy she is leaving behind, her most two distinct initiatives, ie the Gonsski education reforms & the Disability Insurance are also remembered & credited to her.

The question is becoming more like this: "Who has heavier baggage which can sink Labor to the bottom quicker? Gillard Or Rudd?"

Meanwhile Tony Abbott & the coalition are laughing all the way to the lodge! And who can blame them?

Trying to leave a legacy for the future in order to hide their shambolic past 3 years?

Make no mistake! Gillard & Swan know they are doomed at the next election in September!

They are therefore on a "Legacy Building" mission in the hope that history will be kind to them & looks at them as visionary politicians! Carbon Tax, NBN, Gonski & Disability Insurance! They need those generally well supported policies to be associated with them in the future because as it stands history will judge them & their government very harshly indeed!

So tonight's budget was part & parcel of that process.

Wayne Swan, in his superficially transparent & feeble attempt to guide voters towards a visionary future in his 6th & most probably last budget, was merely attempting to get the voters to forget the Government's shambolic past 3 years littered with disastrous policy implementation.

And he simply did not succeed tonight!

Having utterly failed with the Robin Hood style Mineral Resources Tax, Gillard is now trying her hand on "Robbing Peter to pay Paul" strategy with her Schools Funding Policy!

The recent passing of Margaret Thatcher, the visionary & polarising Iron Lady of British politics brought about the inevitable comparisons with Julia Gillard.

But whilst Thatcher was a politician of very strong convictions & as a result polarised the electorate in UK, Julia Gillard has failed to demonstrate conviction of any kind & her stuttering track record of broken promises & poor policy implementations has left her a mere polarising figure in the eyes of the voters in Australia.

Just look at her latest attempt to define herself:

Kevin Rudd's attempt at Minerals Super Profits Tax was viewed by some as a Robin Hood style wealth redistribution.

Wayne Swan & Julia Gillard's reworked the Mineral Resources Tax & failed! It is projected to raise around 10% of the Treasury's original estimates. Having utterly failed with her hurriedly redesigned Minerals Resources Tax in 2009 shortly after dislodging Rudd, Julia Gillard seems to be desperately trying her hand on the "Rob Peter to pay Paul" strategy now with her Schools Funding policy in order to shore up support amongst the disillusioned voters who have kept Labor's primary vote at a disastrous 30% or so.

And she's still not getting much traction!...simply because she has not managed to create any perception of "conviction" during her time as Prime Minister.

It suffices to finish the post by reminding everyone that despite all the intense attacks on Margaret Thatcher by her opponents & the media (many justifiably) during her time as the first female British PM, not once the Iron Lady accused her detractors as misogynistic nor she ever used misogyny as an excuse for her policy failures!

Be Mad! Be very mad at the circus that is the Labor Party!

Be mad! Be very mad at the circus that is Australian Labor Party at the moment! In fact if you are a loyal Labor supporter you should be very very mad at Gillard, Rudd, Swan, Conroy & everyone else in the senior ranks of Labor!

Almost all expert political commentators from both left & right leaning media in the have commented about the debacle of last Thursday's spill. Anyone with the slightest shred of interest in politics in general, but more specifically in Labor Party, should read some of the articles written in print media in the last few days & take note of this bunch of self serving, incompetent & inward looking politicians who are taking the Labor Party & its hard earned & much cherished values to the ground & to the point of irrelevance with them!

However, Martin Ferguson's resignation speech says it all. A competent life long servant of ALP summed up the hopeless situation Labor finds itself in. If Gillard & her faceless backers ignored the recommendations of Faulkner/Bracks/Carr in 2010, they must take their heads out of the sand & take notice of Martin Ferguson's speech.

Let's take a few steps back to late 2012:

By mid 2012 the Treasurer was spruiking his much criticised "Class War rhetoric" whilst blindly walking right into the trap set by the wily opposition in continuing to insist the Gillard Government would be delivering a budget surplus in FY2013. This was despite both business groups & unions advising the Government not to slow down the economy any further by cutting services in order to bring about a totally irrelevant surplus of less than $2 billion! But, sadly, they were dealing with the Treasurer who so ineptly had helped PM Gillard design a face saving and as it turned out meaningless Mineral Resources Tax Policy even though surely by now he should have known the expected tax revenue was going to be a simple fraction what had been projected!

In December, Wayne Swan had to come out & admitted the surplus was not even as good as a mirage!

Then the PM inexplicably announced the date of the Federal Elections 8 months in advance in January. It is difficult to guess whether this was to disarm Kevin Rudd & his supporters, or whether it was once again another strategic miscalculation by Gillard & her accident prone advisers! But although she claimed this was done in order that she could get on with governing, Gillard has done nothing but electioneering since the announcement!

A few days later, two of Gillard's most competent Ministers, Roxon & Evans resigned! The rest of 2013 is simply a case of Politics 101 of "How to lose influence & get kicked out of government".

The much contrived PM's trip to the marginal seats of Western Sydney where the PM literally did not end up coming face to face with a single disgruntled voter, to the total bungling of the Media Reform Legislation by the hapless clueless Steven Conroy (who despite his total incompetence remains a senior cabinet minister only because his factional union bosses continue to support Gillard), to the spill that wasn't spill & finally proved Rudd has no ticker & finally to the mass resignation of some of the most competent Labor politicians in the ranks as sacrificial Rudd supporters last weekend!

And the circus of these egotistic self serving performers is guaranteed to continue in the coming months in the run up to the desperately needed elections in September.

And the voters should be mad & should vote Labor out of office with baseball bats!

It is simply not good enough to claim Julia Gillard is tough as nails! Whilst Rudd & his supporters have done nothing but destabilise her & she has no doubt out muscled them in every turn, she has sold out Labor values to cater to the Greens & a independents. She has also sold out the hard fought visionary Labor policies that Hawke & Keating used to bring ALP closer to business & in doing so has tarnished labor's legacy of the Hawke-Keating era.
Gillard & Swan have criticised and blamed Kevin Rudd every step of the way whilst incompetently stumbling from one policy debacle to another, and in doing so have bought themselves more time in Government! And Gillard has never once demoted a senior minister due to poor performance (mainly Swan & Conroy).

Graham Richardson summed up the situation perfectly when he said: "Gillard now has full ownership of the amssacre to come!"

Why Australia needs a Kevin Rudd vs Tony Abbott election?

As unlikely as it is, for Australia's sake, it is imperative that someone other than Julia Gillard leads the Government towards the elections in September.

This post is not about attacking Julia Gillard. Labor are probably bound to lose whether she remains at the helm or not.

But a Gillard vs Abbott election will be all about personalities of the two leaders as they attack each other's character, and will have very little or no substantive focus on policy issues.

Abbott will attack Gillard's trustworthiness. He has enough ammunition to question the character of the PM based on the many failed policies and /or poor policy implementation her record is littered with (the Mineral Resources Tax debacle being the latest)

On the other hand, the Gillard camp will no doubt attack Abbott's perceived lack of popularity amongst moderate male voters & most female voters ie the Gillard camp will concentrate on Abbott's deep unpopularity amongst the electorate.

And sadly but surely, the media will love this battle & further concentrate the focus on the battle of personalities. This personality battle will limit the policy debate to marginal seat type issues such as border security & boat arrivals as both sides battle for a handful of marginal seats.

Substantive policy debate will no doubt take a back seat & Gillard will end up defending her Government's poor track record instead of challenging Abbott to discuss the already invisible details of his.

But if Kevin Rudd leads Labor, whilst character assassination strategies will still be on display from both sides, at the very least some substantive policy initiatives will get a bigger share of limelight & the media has no choice but t give policy debates a higher profile.

Kevin Rudd's almost cult status profile will limit character assassination strategies. Even though Abbott & the coalition will no doubt try to highlight & expose the so called faceless factional powerbrokers of ALP, they will not be able to attack Rudd's character with the same intensity they will be targeting Gillard.

Rightly or wrongly, Kevin Rudd's poor record in many policy areas seems to have been forgiven & forgotten by the voters! Therefore, he is not carrying the baggage that is limiting Gillard's strategies. At the same time he has a much better media presence than both Abbott & Gillard, and seems more at ease talking about policy matters than either leader, both of whom look awkward & at unease when challenged on policy matters

2007 election saw the removal of John Howard & was one of the key historical moments in Australia's political landscape. 2013 may turn out to be crucial again in many way.

Neither Gillard nor Abbott exhibit the visionary leadership qualities that Australia needs to rebuild the momentum that was created during the Hawke-Keating-Howard era.

Kevin Rudd & Malcolm Turnbull on the other hand do!!!!

PM Julia Gillard's attempt to get on the front foot once again derailed!

To paraphrase Ocar Wilde: "To lose one senior Minister may be regarded a misfortune, to lose two in one day looks like carelessness"!

Labor party is in a mess! It takes Gillard's own Labor colleagues, ie Craig Thompson, Nicola Roxon & Chris Evans to derail & overshadow Gillard's latest attempt to get on the front foot in the eyes of the voters!

Julia Gillard simply can not get on the front foot! As soon as she took the bold move of giving the voters an 8 month long election campaign (yawn!) in order to neutralise Kevin Rudd supporters & force Tony Abbott's hand on actual policy issues, Craig Thompson (finally) got charged & arrested.

Then to make matters worse, two of Gillard's most senior & loyal ministers (and competent I may add) announced they are stepping down from her front bench on Saturday. To make matters worse, in what can easily be interpreted as lack of confidence in Government's chances of winning the next election, both Nicola Roxon & Chris Evans announced their retirement from politics after the next Federal election in September.

And to add icing to the cake, Eddie Obeid will go on stand in the ICAC corruption investigations against him & his family & other Labor identities on Monday, as the Parliament resumes.

Julia Gillard may have shown great political skills to take her minority government full term. But in doing so she has been lucky because she has had to deal with the least popular opposition leader in living memory, if not of all time. 

But even with Tony Abbott's unpopularity as a huge bonus for her, surely Julia Gillard must know the writing is on the wall! Everything seems to be stacked against her!

Deloitte's latest Global Retailers ranking is the clearest proof of the unhealthy duopoly of Wesfarmers (Coles) & Woolworths in Australia

Deloitte have just released their latest Annual Global Retailers.

A simple look at the pie chart above (not from the report) clearly demonstrates the overwhelming market power of Coles & Woolworths in the food & liquour market segment in Australia.

However, the Deloitte's report, which includes revenue from all of their other associated businesses such as poker machines, Big W, Target, K Mart, Office Works, Bunnings & Masters etc, makes it even more overwhelming to grasp the true market power of this duopoly, which by the way up to now ACCC considers as ok!

And all you need to do in the Deloitte report to see this fact is to simply study the ranking of the top 20 largest global retailers by sales:

The world's biggest retailers and their revenues (in million USD) in 2011,
the newest available data as supplied in Deloitte's Global Retailers 2013 report:

1 Wal-Mart US $US446,950
2 Carrefour France $US113,197
3 Tesco UK $US101,574
4 Metro Germany $US92,905
5 Kroger US $US90,374
6 Costco US $US88,915
7 Schwarz Germany $US87,841
8 Aldi Germany $US73,375
9 Walgreen US $US72,184
10 The Home Depot US $US70,395
11 Target Corporation US $US68,466
12 Groupe Auchan SA France $US60,515
13 Aeon Co, Ltd. Japan $US60,158
14 CVS Caremark Corp US $US59,599
15 Edeka Zentrale AG & Co. KG Germany $US59,460
16 Seven & i Holdings Co, Ltd Japan $US57,966
17 Woolworths Limited Australia $US54,614
18 Wesfarmers Limited Australia $US52,208
19 Rewe Combine Germany $US51,331
20 Best Buy Co, Inc US $US50,705

What is striking in case of Wesfarmers (Coles) & Woolworths compared to the other food/liquour retailers in the ranking is the fact that those retailers based in the US and Europe operate in many countries including in emerging markets.

Woolworths and (Wesfarmers) Coles on the other hand have earned their huge revenues in the small Australian (and NZ) market of a mere 25m people. They have achieved this by dominating every possible market segment with the current exception of prescription & pharmacy medicines.

At the same time, the likes of Walmart, Carrefour & Tesco, Costco & Aldi, whilst powerful, earn their revenues in multiple markets with a total potential population of 100s of millions if not billions of customers around the world.

So, compare this: 

Woolworths & Coles ranked amongst global Top 20 retailing giants based on a total total potential market population of 25m
                                                      vs
eg Walmark/Tesco based on a potential market population of several hundreds of millions of customers if not more than a billion!

Coles & Woolworths are a powerful duopoly which if left to their own, will ultimately ruin competition & small businesses in most retail sectors

And ACCC continues to insist competition in the retailing market in Australia is alive & well!