Successful political careers, more than ever before in today's world of intense 24/7 media scrutiny, are a matter of whether a perception of conviction as well as trustworthiness can be projected to voters.
And Julia Gillard ultimately failed to achieve either. From the moment the dysfunctional procrastinating Rudd was toppled, the question of earning the voters' trust became a losing battle for Gillard, and the "Carbon Tax" broken promise soon afterwards was the final nail in the coffin of Gillard's credibility amongst voters.
Nevertheless, Gillard was the PM we had to have!
Rudd's leadership style, as widely reported was totally dysfunctional & a change in leadership was no less imperative as it was when Mark Latham was replaced, albeit in a different context.
Despite proving herself to be a political fighter leading a minority government, Gillard never managed to establish herself as a politician of any tangible conviction. Her failure in this respect was mainly due to her frequent political misjudgements & errors compounded by seemingly amateurish advice. This led her to the desperate tactics of gender & class warfare both of which ultimately backfired.
Gillard & Rudd were exact opposites as PMs in many ways. Gillard was decisive, a good administrator, consultative (albeit with a track record littered with poor political judgement).To those who knew her well, and even those like myself who had had the opportunity to meet her in a few functions & spend a minute or two talking to her, she was warm & likable. And yet, she ultimately failed the test of trust & political conviction in the eyes of majority of voters.
However, whilst in years to come Gillard will probably be commended for her Disability Insurance & Gonski Education Reforms, in my view, she will also rightly be blamed for her Fair Work Legislation which is stifling Australia's IR environment by pandering to every wish of the unions, at a critical time when the mining boom is beginning to fade. She has regressed the IR reforms of Hawke/Keating/Howard era by a long way.
Rudd on the other hand, in his first time around as the PM, was widely reported to have been a procrastinator, micromanager, aggressively insulting & non consultative. And yet, he amazingly enjoys the voters' trust & his constant rhetoric & lack of policy progress in his time as PM have been somehow forgotten simply because he has earned their trust & they perceive him as a politician of conviction.
And, here is where the next battle lies for Rudd. As John Howard famously proved, in Australia, voters don't have to necessarily like a politician to vote for him/her, rather they need to trust in their ability & respect a politician's conviction.
Rudd will no doubt give Abbott a timely run for his money, and more importantly make the election much more about policy than mere personalities or gender wars.
And this is why Rudd is the PM we have to have. He is right in saying Labor under Gillard was allowing Abbott & the coalition win without being scrutinised.
The fact that Abbott is not liked & Rudd is, will not necessarily be the decisive factor in the next election as long as Abbot continues to successfully sell the perception of political competence. And conviction, and yes! Like it or not, most of his negative tactics of the past three years can be turned around to a perception of political conviction; the classic example being the simplistic yet effective "turning the boats around!".
Therefore, if Abbott is successful with his message, the voters will most probably give him the benefit of the doubt by trusting him to lead the country. And this is why Abbott will probably be the PM we will have.
Whether he can retain that trust is up to him & his policies & his government's performance.
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