Malcolm Turnbull leads a long line of losers following Saturday's election disaster

Malcolm Turnbull has always been a confident man & believed in himself…….that may not be the case following Saturday's disastrous showing.

He has no one to blame for destroying a once in a generation public goodwill but himself.

He was arguably the only Liberal leader in living memory who got elevated to the top job with a massive public support & political goodwill behind him. Labor leaders Kevin Rudd, Bob Hawke & Gough Whitlam had enjoyed similar support but no conservative leader ever had, certainly not John Howard, Malcolm Fraser  or Tony Abbott.

But Turnbull's self belief got the better of him & contributed to his humiliation on Saturday night.

…..and let's make no mistake, humiliation it was! Even in the unlikely event that the coalition manage to win 76 seats & form a thin majority government.

Malcolm Turnbull & his coconspirators executed the first term PM Tony Abbott in no less ruthless fashion than Gillard, Shorten & co had done Kevin Rudd……and yet the unprecedented public goodwill (and intense dislike for Abbott) meant this was not an issue that could be used as character assassination!

But as a Liberal insider suggested to me a few weeks before the election was called…." Everyone knew Malcolm had always wanted the top job, but we now realise he wanted to get there but hadn't thought about what to do the day after he got there!……"

And this has been crystal clear from day one last September!

Thought bubble after thought bubble came & vaporised into thin air as Malcolm Turnbull waffled from one poorly considered idea to the next without consulting his senior colleagues yet alone his party room……..and his claim of a "consultative Cabinet" simply did not eventuate.

But what mainly undid the huge public goodwill & nationwide support for Turnbull were two main issues:

- His & his Health Minister's very poor handling of Health related policies as they alienated most if not almost all stakeholders in the industry, and
- His abysmal & almost embarrassing handling of tax reform as he seemed to be immersed in his own poorly considered ideas & change of mind day after day….from GST, to state taxes, to superannuation to negative gearing to…….

…...and the end wishy-washy policy platform for the election ended up alienating his base support on superannuation & giving his opponents the opportunity to portray his Tax Policy as "handouts to big business"!

The other reason many are disappointed in Turnbull's election strategy is his "double dissolution" idea to make the Senate more workable:

Any casual political observer like me would have known that at a time when demagogues from Donald Trump in USA to Marine Le Pen in France to Nigel Farage in UK to other minor parties across Europe were gaining traction with their divisive populist propaganda, a new Senate would undoubtedly attract protest votes & elevate the likes of Pauline Hanson!

So Thank you Mr Turnbull! Thank you for your political expediency & vision that suggested working with the likes of Glen Lazarus, Ricky Muir, Bob Day & the rest of cross benches was too hard & your solution was the divisive Pauline Hanson & her supporters instead!…..another disastrous result for Turnbull & co! (although I am not questioning the democratic process & election of Pauline Hanson per se, she has got elected because there are many disengaged voters who see no other option but to turn to her as their voice of protest)

And last but not the least, Turnbull decided on an unwise & long 8 week campaign….and then as reported in the media, seemed to switch off the long road even quicker than many voters did! in doing so he overestimated his popularity & ignored Politics 101 rules of campaigning 18 hour days…and some days stopped his media commitments by noon whilst Bill Shorten kept on talking to anyone who wanted to talk to him day & night.

On that note, credit must be given to Bill Shorten & his campaign team, for a very effective, tireless & successful campaign. Not withstanding the dirty & effective "Medicare" tactics, who would have given Bill Shorten the slightest of chances last September?

And a slightly less yet noteworthy credit to the Nationals Leader Barnaby Joyce. In an election which turned out to be full of "protest votes" against major parties everywhere, he was successful against a very experienced & much admired & high profile independent opponent (Tony Windsor) & triumphed when many of his colleagues failed.

This is why most voters' level of disappointment in Turnbull has been much more intense than their disappointment in Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd & Tony Abbott…….& it showed on Saturday……they had such high hopes & aspirations when Turnbull became the PM last September………and it all vaporised into thin air in such a short space of time!

ICAC investigation of NSW Liberals, Joe Hockey & Maurice Newman help make Abbott's 1st year in office less than great!

It's now a year since Tony Abbott led the coalition back to power.

Sadly, the brightest spot in the Australian landscape since last September remains the disappearance of narcissistic Kevin Rudd & the hapless Julia Gillard & her devotion to all things Unions!

Although Clive Palmer's populist & clever manoeuvres have spiced up the political scene, the Government has failed to inspire the voters as most of its senior members & in particular Joe Hockey confuse their newly found dogmatism for perception of conviction in the eyes of the voters!

And the perception created as a result of the usual policy gaffes &  "foot in the mouth" political incidents, in particular in case of the seemingly out of depth Joe Hockey, is that the Abbott Government is in the pockets of (very) big business as much as Gillard Government's was in the pockets of the Unions.

The NSW Hunter/Newcastle weird brand of politics &the ICAC enquiry into illegal political donations to Liberal MPs in NSW is continuing to damage the Federal Government in no less way than the likes of Obeid & Trapodi damaged the Labor brand Federally previously.

And then there is the issue of Industrial Relations, the unaffordable penalty rates & the already evident impact on eg high youth unemployment, a legacy of Julia Gillard's Fair Work inflexibility. Tony Abbott & his competent & likeable eEmployment Minister Eric Abetz look like they have their hands tied behind their backs and are unable to deliver reform at the pace SME are asking for. Meanwhile real unemployment and underemployment continue to rise as a result of the unworkable Fair Work Legislation's penalty rates & Australia's IR reforms of the Hawke/Keating/Howard era are fast being eroded, not to mention competitiveness & productivity.

Furthermore, on the negative side, the PM's well know association with the likes of the arrogant & out of touch Cardinal George Pell (whom the PM refers to as a Mentor) & also his chief business "privatise them all" advisor Maurice Newman & his well publicised climate sceptic comments do not bode well for Tony Abbott's already poor public image as the most disliked new PM in living memory.

Nevertheless, Tony Abbott has delivered many of his populist core election promises: Boat arrivals have dried up (albeit due to very harsh draconian response), Carbon Tax & Mining Tax have been repealed & he is negotiating with cross bench Senators & some of the Government's reforms are good & necessary.

Tony Abbott (& his Foreign Minister Julie Bishop) have also handled international political issues well in the recent months & used international events to his full advantage to demonstrate his statesmanship credentials.

All in all,Tony Abbott has overall performed better than most of his team & in particular his Treasurer & his business advisors in his first year as PM.

The problem with Paul Howes........

Paul Howes, the Australian Workers Union National Secretory, in a speech at the Press Club today criticised the current industrial relations system as a drag on Australia's economy.

Paul Howes is of course best known as one of the faceless powerbroker architects of the disastrous coup against Kevin Rudd in 2010, and more recently for his rather humiliating backdown in the hotly contested race to land Bob Carr's vacated plum Labor Senate seat in NSW.

The problem with Paul Howes is, he's desperately trying to redefine his power base in the Union movement, the Labor Party & more broadly to shape his political future, which as it stands right now, is looking pretty shaky & uncertain.

So, I guess today he decided to have a go at portraying himself in the same pragmatic mould of Bob Hawke & Paul Keating in the 80s & their historic march towards forcing the Unions to agree to the "wage accord".

But it remains to be seen whether it is too little, too desperate & too late for Paul Howes to gain traction to redefine his political career!

Fall from grace concluded: Kevin Rudd's lasting legacy will be self promoting narcissism

As harsh as it may sound, Kevin Rudd was just about the only MP with teary eyes last night as contrived compliments from both sides of politics were read in his honour after he announced his retirement from politics!

Kevin Rudd's lasting legacy should be much more, but sadly it will be self promoting narcissism.

Whilst it is universally acknowledged that that the plot by the still present faceless powerbrokers to remove him was one of the biggest acts of treachery in the history of Labor Party, his subsequent & consistent white anting of Julia Gillard until he replaced her as PM simply makes Julia Gillard look like a tower of integrity next to him.

This contrast was compounded by the dignified way Julia Gillard withdrew from public life after losing the ballot compared to all the sabotage & leaking by Rudd & his allies. And let's not forget the Chief deputy in all of the white anting was Chris Bowen, who now prancing around claiming he own the mantle of honesty & integrity!

The most damning legacy for any politician is when they retire from public office & not many voters miss their departure. Whilst they almost always stay around too long & experience this indignity, in Rudd's case this is augmented & even the vast majority of those who only a few months ago seemed to adore him are now simply happy to see the back of him!

But to give Rudd some credit, he did manage to take political narcissism in Australia to new heights & in the process made the likes of Gillard & Abbott look good!

It's finally on! The Election we had to have!

The election we had to have is finally on!

Kevin Rudd's ascendancy to the leadership of the Labor Party has once again made the polls close & the election battle meaningful. Julia Gillard's leadership was irreversibly damaged as she utterly failed to regain the trust & ears of voters.

It threatened an unhealthy landslide victory by the opposition.

However, Kevin Rudd's popularity is seemingly based on "Voter Amnesia" & how well Labor performs on election day is depends on whether voters' amnesia continues!

Yes, Tony Abbott must present both his vision & his policies in detail in the next month. Yes, like Gillard, Tony Abbott has a public perception problem. And yes, there are aspects of coalition basic policy platforms that are inferior to Labor's.

But both Gillard & Rudd Governments are tainted by a history of numerous political errors, poor policy implementation & amateurish political judgement, not to mention the messy leadership executions!

At the same time, a hung Parliament is hardly going to improve business or consumer confidence.

An Abbott victory with a modest majority will be the best probable outcome as it gives the coalition the opportunity to implement their policies in the next term to prove their competence to the voters whilst it also gives the voters the opportunity to punish the coalition in 3 years time if they don't deliver. 

And as for a Rudd led Government, there's nothing to add. Gillard & Rudd have both had their time, and neither delivered enough to deserve a third term Labor Government!

"Who has heavier baggage which can sink Labor to the bottom quicker? Gillard Or Rudd?"

Julia Gillard is consistently delivering Labor some of its lowest primary votes of all time in the polls. That indicates a disaster of titanic proportions come the elections in September.

Kevin Rudd on the other hand, continues to destabilise Gillard & the Labor Government with his vindictive & egocentric behaviour, which is heavily contributing to Labor's polling woes & sinking Labor regardless of the disastrous polls.

And both will deservedly go down as having destroyed Labor & its values with their stubborn behaviour & poor leadership qualities & actions. 

No party machine could possibly accept or condone Kevin Rudd's consistently destructive behaviour. He seems to have more regard for his own personal legacy than the good of Labor legacy.

On the other hand, Julia Gillard can talk all she wants about sexism & misogyny she was subjected to during her time as the PM. 
But the fact remains that whilst history will remember her as a fighter, it will also recall her many policy failures & implementation disasters, as well as broken promises such as the Carbon Tax & for poorly managing a much divided party whilst allowing the Unions & the Greens to influence & dictate much of what she believes she should be credited for, policies that are mostly stifling & regressive to their core & will damage Australia's productivity in the years after her.
She can only hope that amongst the ruinous legacy she is leaving behind, her most two distinct initiatives, ie the Gonsski education reforms & the Disability Insurance are also remembered & credited to her.

The question is becoming more like this: "Who has heavier baggage which can sink Labor to the bottom quicker? Gillard Or Rudd?"

Meanwhile Tony Abbott & the coalition are laughing all the way to the lodge! And who can blame them?

Trying to leave a legacy for the future in order to hide their shambolic past 3 years?

Make no mistake! Gillard & Swan know they are doomed at the next election in September!

They are therefore on a "Legacy Building" mission in the hope that history will be kind to them & looks at them as visionary politicians! Carbon Tax, NBN, Gonski & Disability Insurance! They need those generally well supported policies to be associated with them in the future because as it stands history will judge them & their government very harshly indeed!

So tonight's budget was part & parcel of that process.

Wayne Swan, in his superficially transparent & feeble attempt to guide voters towards a visionary future in his 6th & most probably last budget, was merely attempting to get the voters to forget the Government's shambolic past 3 years littered with disastrous policy implementation.

And he simply did not succeed tonight!

Gillard Government's obsession with self preservation threatens the foundations of Labor Party but no one in the Party seems to care!

Since the last Federal elections in Australia, there have been two key events responsible for the consistently low primary vote for Labor Party:

1. Julia Gillard's obsession with self preservation in Government by shaping policy based on preserving her agreement with the Greens (and to a lesser extent with the independents)

2. Labor Party's powerbrokers' decision, again in a self serving self preservation manner, to largely ignore the road map recommendations in the Faulkner/Bracks/Carr report on the affairs of the Labor Party in early 2011

As a result we are left with a PM who's constantly watching her back & is in self preservation autopilot, and Party led by powerbrokers who are more interested in their fat pockets & retaining their positions of power & influence than the future relevance of Labor Party.

Meanwhile, none seem to care that Labor Party is on its knees! Julia Gillard is mistrusted by the vast majority of the voters, and the Party itself is progressively abandoned by its grassroot supporters who continue to defect to the Greens.

And tonight's Victorian Lower House State by election in Melbourne has developed to a closely contested & fierce battle against the Greens, in a traditionally safe Labor seat!

Labor needs to renew & restructure soon, or their selfish leaders will drag the party down with them into the black hole oblivion they are destined to go to in the upcoming State & Federal elections in the next few years.

Not that anyone would miss their incompetence!

No. But voters must not forget or forgive Labor leaders' selfish self preservation tactics if indicative polls become reality & end up with Labor's annihilation into obscurity, as they have in NSW & QLD so far.
A democracy without strong opposition is simply not a democracy.

At the rate Gillard, Unions & Labor powerbrokers are turning voters away from them to the opposition & the Greens, this is becoming a distinct possibility.

History & the future leaders of Labor Party will not forgive these selfish self preserving individuals.

Structural reform of the Labor Party, a necessity for the survival of the Party & critical for our two party based democracy

Labor strategists once again read the mood of the voting public totally wrong, this time in the QLD State elections.

Since Rudd's landslide Federal election victory in 2007, which at the time left (the new Premier of QLD) Campbell Newman, the then Liberal Lord Mayor of Brisbane as the highest ranking Liberal official in Australia, Labor has lost WA, VIC, NSW, has gone into minority governments supported by Greens in TAS & Federally, and now been annihilated in QLD.

"Voters with baseball bats", a phrase coined by journalists describing the likelihood of Gillard Government's annihilation in the next Federal election was changed to "voters carrying chain saws on the day of QLD Elections" by early saturday evening shortly after the first exit polls.

The Liberal National Party (LNP) is expected to win anything up to 78 seats in the parliament consisting of a total of 89 seats leaving Labor with a mere handful of seats after accounting for the 4 independents/Kettar members. The optional preferential voting system made this defeat even worse than the disastrous in NSW in 2011, where the preferential voting system meant 80s of greens & independent votes flew to Labor.

Forget about the so called faceless men of Labor, popularly held responsible for the sad & sorry state of the Party & its brand name! It is even more tragic to see the public faces of the Party still in denial, at least publicly, about the urgent need of structural and personnel reform in the Party.

And here's the main point of my blog: The urgent restructuring of Labor Party, which is regrettably being denied by self interested powerbrokers in the Party, is an imperative & urgent matter for the political survival of the Party as well as our two party based democracy. Labor owes this to the Australian public! The future of the Party and more crucially the health of our democracy depends on a reformed, viable & relevant Labor Party.

Nobody will benefit from a democratic system when one party has an overwhelming majority! believe it or not, history shows politicians will misuse that power to the determent of the voters!

And the ego driven Rudd political soap opera keeps getting better!

Kevin Rudd is at least right about one thing! The leadership saga in Labor Party is like a daytime soap opera! With characters getting assassinated (as he was in 2010) then returning as a new character (as he was as Foreign Minister) & then later being exposed as the reincarnation of the original assassinated character! (as he is now trying to come back as)

Michelle Grattan, in her latest article in The Age, describes the situation facing Australia & the Labor Party are facing in this ego driven political circus better than any other journalist familiar with the saga"

"Kevin Rudd says he can win the voters, she can’t. Julia Gillard says she runs a functional government, and his was shambolic. Both are right. Caucus members face an invidious choice. Whatever they do — and at this point they are expected to re-elect Gillard — it will be a disaster. In less than five years, thanks mainly to two leaders who have been bad in very different ways, this Labor government has become almost as discredited as the Whitlam one all those years ago."
(Michelle Grattan's full article on: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/unsavoury-way-to-sort-out-a-feud-20120223-1tqnq.html#ixzz1nInddB00)

For those of us who are interested in politics, the sentimental fascination of voters with Kevin Rudd remains a mystery! It is widely acknowledged that he was an egotistic, micromanaging, temperamental non consultative PM who surrounded himself with a bunch of 30 year old advisors who helped create a truly shambolic administration. At the same time, his latest tilt can be rightly described as selfish, ego driven & vindictive. Whilst Rudd's attitude towards Gillard & his faceless assassins is considered a normality in the vicious world of politics, he is driven by revenge & his actions may totally annihilate the Labor Party. And that is considered a totally unacceptable & treacherous act in the world of party politics. And yet, the voters seem to trust Rudd!

At the same time, Gillard, who has tirelessly led a difficult minority government & is described as a much more inclusive PM, has utterly failed to cement any lasting impression in the minds of the voters or win their trust. This has resulted in an apparent lack of legitimacy or competence in the eyes of the voters! Adding to this, the carbon tax saga has lost Gillard her credibility & as a result voters intensely dislike Gillard!

And hence the soap opera come circus keeps getting rolling on! Whilst Gillard will almost definitely win the leadership ballot, the soap opera will also almost definitely continue!

The fragile economy, the Australian public & the Labor Party will be the ultimate losers at the end......& no matter who wins the contest, neither Gillard nor Rudd will be long term winners as they will both be indelibly tarnished!

2012: The year Tony Abbott must prove himself as a credible "alternative PM"

By all accounts Tony Abbott has been a very effective opposition leader since the election day in 2010. Despite all his detractors' protestation, his job as opposition leader is & will be to attempt to block any government policy his side of politics does not agree with, and to win votes in the process.

However, 2012 will be a year Abbott must firstly demonstrate his policy credentials, and then prove his leadership abilities as a credible alternative PM.

Julia Gillard has by any definition enjoyed a great run in the past few weeks. She passed her poisoned "Carbon Tax" as well as the "Mining Resources Supertax" through the Lower House. She's been seen as a decisive leader in the world stage & has improved her fragile numbers in the Lower House by one!

She has truly put an end to her rocky 2011 with a bang! Despite her earlier comments about lack of interest in foreign policy, she is finishing the year in full appreciation of what wonders "Foreign Affairs" can do to make any leader look decisive & worldly! From hosting the Queen to enjoying the "Obamarama" in standing shoulder to shoulder with the US President, to lecturing European leaders about economic management whilst hosting Asian Leaders.....

And to top it all, for the first time during her reign as the PM, she managed a superb coup without a single leak by her eternal enemies in Labor Party & surprised the opposition this week by increasing her slim & fragile majority by one vote in the Lower House. This will potentially neutralise the "Poker Machine" issue from the already shrinking war cupboard of Tony Abbott.

All of the above leave Tony Abbott in a very sticky situation for 2012. He has only the "Boat People" issue as an unresolved matter to hang on to. Whilst he can & will continue to attack the carbon & mining tax, the truth is he is now fully exposed & can no longer hide behind "problematic issues of the minority Government".

Whilst it is still probably true that no matter what Gillard & Labor do, voters will be waiting with what a prominent journalist in the media recently termed "their baseball bats at the polls in 2013", the fact is 2012 will be a make or break year for Tony Abbott too. No matter what happens to Gillard & her fragile minority alliance with the Greens & independents, and no matter how the likes of Bill Shorten & Mark Arbib & the rest of faceless poll driven & self promoting men of Labor play their cards with Julia Gillard's leadership, Tony Abbot must prove himself as a credible alternative prime minister with at leasts some credible & fully costed policy platforms in 2012 or face the potential consequences.

If on the other hand Abbott decides to continue to ignore major policy fronts such as IR & simply continues with his current war of attrition & solely relies on the apparent comfortable lead the opposition enjoys in the polls on the two party preferred basis, he may find 2012 a lot less enjoyable as the opposition leader than 2011!

Australia, a multi speed economy with a minority government paralised by instability

Australia weathered the global financial crisis better than her European & north American counterparts, thanks to the resources hungry economies of South East Asia & India.

Regrettably however, we have inherited a multi-speed economy with many sectors in varying degrees of recessionary difficulties, a minority government that is hostage to its independent MPs & the Greens, a PM tarnished by her inability to demonstrate any political conviction, and her failure to implement any of her main stated policies, and worst of all a Reserve Bank that is simply in denial about the recessionary state of many sectors & is has remained obsessed with controlling inflation, which by the way does not even exists in many sectors, most notably in retail which is being crushed by deflationary pressures.

As a result, the political game in Canberra has simply become a war of attrition between a much weakened PM who has to constantly watch her back, and an opposition that has mastered, albeit unproductively for the nation, the art of negativity.

Meanwhile, the government has failed to address any of the fundamental issues facing retail, construction, tourism & manufacturing sectors (to name a few) all of which comprise of many small struggling privately owned businesses.

At the same time, the Qantas confrontation has highlighted the inflexibility of Julia Gillard's "Fairwork" legislation & how it has reversed most of the IR reforms of the past two decades.

And to make matters worse, the self serving powerbroker elements in Labor party such as Bill Shorten, continue their rather superficial & patronising public support for the PM whilst they adoringly look at themselves in the mirror every morning & see the future PM smiling back at them!

It has taken more than 25 years of continuous reform to take Australia to its current dizzy heights. The current PM & her incompetent team around her are unravelling everything in the space of 2.5 years!

At last some good news out of Labor Party! But is it only good news for the time being?

Good news!...No, I mean Great News:

Karl Bitar the ALP National Secretary & one of the main architects of the disastrous Labor Election Campaign during last year's Federal Elections has announced his resignation from the position. That is great news, for both the Labor Party & Australia!

Karl Bitar (alongside Mark Arbib & the rest of the NSW Right powerbrokers) left NSW in the sorry state that it currently is for greener pastures of the Federal politics a few years ago as the Labor National Secretary (Mark Arbib got himself on top of the Senate ticket from NSW & became a Senator in 2007).

Bitar, Arbib, Shorten & the rest of the so called faceless powerbrokers then advised PM Kevin Rudd in early 2009 to drop his "Greatest moral challenge of our generation", ie his ETS policy & subsequently lost him all credibility, and then proceeded to execute him as we all know.

Amazingly however, Bitar & Arbib arrogantly refused to take any responsibility for Labor's poor showing in the last Federal election & to this day remain unaccountable for their poor track record in NSW & Federal politics.

Therefore it is great news that Bitar is quitting his post! But don't be fooled by his "family reasons" rhetoric. Of course politicians' families do sacrifice a lot & I am not disputing that for a moment, and Karl Bitar's young family are no exeption.

What is worrying about Bitar's resignation is if his real motive is to position himself for a cushy Senate seat or a safe Labor seat in the Lower House in the next Federal election, as Arbib, Bill Shorten, Greg Combet, Doug Cameron & countless other high ranking union officials have done in the past.

So watch this space! If Karl Bitar is simply resigning in order to get into the next Parliament, the news is not as good as it seems on the surface!