As widely expected for the past few months, PM Malcolm Turnbull announced a double dissolution election for July 2nd last weekend.
And let's make no mistake about it: As his record so far stands, Malcolm Turnbull can only hope to win this election based on a US style Presidential/Personal popularity contest!
Malcolm Turnbull has been underwhelming to say the least since he toppled Tony Abbott last year & created a wave of national optimism.
He has demonstrated a mastery of political rhetoric & a less skillful political tactician than anticipated. The Government's foray to Tax Reform was of course the single biggest demonstration of lack of proper political process. The PM has jumped from one idea to the next & has quickly dumped one hasty thought bubble for another, causing embarrassment for his colleagues & in particular the Treasurer Scott Morrison.
Bill Shorten on the other hand, was totally hit for six by the popular wave of optimism following Turnbull's toppling of Abbott.
But to give Bill Shorten & his Labor colleagues credit, they have stayed united & focused on (mostly) policy issues & kept their nerves. Shorten has successfully narrowed & closed the huge gap in polls following the change of leadership & has highlighted the apparent lack of cohesive policy & decision making in the Turnbull Government to voters.
So as it is right now, and with a very long 8 week contest ahead of them, Malcolm Turnbull's best hope is to win a USA style Presidential popularity contest against Bill Shorten, because so far he has shown little substance to justify his challenge to replace Tony Abbott.
If eight weeks is a long time in politics, 8 weeks of election campaign must be even longer! Both leaders are bound to stumble & make mistakes during the course of the campaign.
But let's hope the Australia voters a) have lasting memories of e.g. Kevin Rudd's fruitless popularity & b) remain interested & retain their focus during this long 8 weeks to scrutinise & ultimately judge the major parties based on their policies.
Otherwise, we will have a superficial USA style popularity contest based on media performance of our two opposing leaders!
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